The Jumbo Wave

It seems that the small glimmer of hope that everyone is hoping for in the housing market is not likely to come anytime soon.  Mathew Padilla has posted an excellent blog article discussing that the discussion of another wave of foreclosure implies that the current wave has already receded.  Sam Khater, a senior economist with First American CoreLogic has stated: “To say there is a second wave implies the (current) wave has receded . . . I don’t see that the wave has receded.”

Call it what you will, the next foreclosure wave to hit will largely involve Pay Option ARMs.  Pay Option ARMs are adjustable rate mortgages on which the interest rate adjusts monthly and the payment adjusts annually, with borrowers offered options on how large a payment they will make. The options include interest-only, and a "minimum" payment that is usually less than the interest-only payment. The minimum payment option results in a growing loan balance, termed "negative amortization."  As Long and Foster's Ron Sitrin recently commented: because these loans "had negative amortization for so long, they can't refinance out of them and they cannot sell them because the loans are worth more than the properties themselves."

For the most part the expensive gated communities have avoided the impact of the current foreclosure wave, but its job loss consequences are coming home to roost in the upper income brackets.  This graph puts the Pay Option ARM problem in stark terms: 

As a recent post on Dr. Housing Bubble stated: "The Pay Option ARM is one of the most poorly construed mortgage product ever to face this planet. It was a pathetic attempt to allow a larger majority of Americans to have a piece of the great American credit ponzi scheme."  How's that for upbeat? 


Arizona Foreclosure Rates

RealtyTrac just released its 2008 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which reported that there were a total of 3,157,806 foreclosure filings (default notices, auction sale notices, and bank repossessions) on 2,330,483 properties during 2008.  That was an 81 percent increase over 2007 and a 225 percent increase over 2006.  To get a feel for the breadth and scope of just how serious the foreclosure Juggernaut is, take a look at this map to see just how hard hit certain parts of the country were in 2008.

Arizona reported the third highest foreclosure rate of all states in 2008.  4.49 percent of all housing units in Arizona received at least one foreclosure filing during the year.  Indeed, 116,911 properties in Arizona received a foreclosure filing, which also put Arizona third for total foreclosure filings.  Amazingly, foreclosure activity in Arizona during 2008 increased 203 percent from 2007 and 665 percent from 2006.  That last percentage far surpasses the two top foreclosure activity states - California (412 percent increase since 2006) and Florida (412 percent increase since 2006).  

Not surprisingly, Pinal and Maricopa County were particularly hard hit.  The Phoenix metropolitan area reported 97,684 foreclosure filings in 2008, an increase of 220.77 percent from 2007.  That put the Phoenix metropolitan area fifth on the top 100 metropolitan areas, which is fairly consistent with its metropolitan population ranking.  The Tucson metropolitan area reported 9,043 foreclosure filings in 2008, an increase of 113.33 percent.  The Tucson metropolitan area ranked 37th on the top 100 metropolitan areas, which is again fairly close to the Tucson metropolitan population ranking. 

The burn-off of the Arizona housing bubble seems to be gaining momentum faster than the meteoric rise in real estate prices.  For example, take a look at the graph of median home prices in Phoenix between 1989 and 2009.  Look at the incredible bell curve between about 2005 and 2008.  The scary thing that some commentators are noting, is that while the bell curve has basically been erased and median prices are near 2004 levels, the current inventory of homes is far greater than 2004 levels, not to mention, it is much more difficult to qualify now.  Looks like we may not hit a bottom for a while yet.  The bubbly hangover may be more painful than the euphoria of the upswing, eh? 

Foreclosure and The Right of Reinstatement

So a borrower defaults under a promissory note and the deed of trust.  Normally, the lender in that circumstance will exercise the power of sale clause in the deed of trust and begin the foreclosure process by noticing a trustee's sale.  However, the lender may also choose to call the note due and accelerate the entire amount and proceed with a judicial foreclosure.  Most lenders choose to go the trustee's sale route because it is faster and cheaper than a judicial foreclosure. 

What I recently discovered, is that many attorneys do not know about a borrower's statutory right of reinstatement and how that right applies in the context of both a trustee's sale and a judicial foreclosure.  Under Arizona Revised Statute Section 33-813(A), the trustor under a deed of trust (borrower) may reinstate (or cure the default under the promissory note) by paying the lender "the entire amount then due . . ., other than the portion of the principal as would not then be due had no default occurred . . ."  In other words, the borrower only needs to come up with the amount he or she is in default, not the entire amount due under the promissory note.  Nonetheless, many lenders' attorneys seem to believe that if the lender calls the promissory note due and exercises its right to accelerate the promissory note, the borrower must immediately pay the entire amount owed under the promissory note in order to cure the default, not just the defaulted amount. 

However, in Chapparral Development v. RMED Intern, 170 Ariz. 309, 823 P.2d 1317 (App. 1991), the Arizona Court of Appeals ruled that under A.R.S. Section 33-813(A), a trustor has an absolute right to reinstatement whether a lender chooses to foreclose by means of trustee's sale or a judicial foreclosure.  The difference being, if a lender chooses to pursue judicial foreclosure, a borrower's statutory right of reinstatement is cut off once the lender files the judicial foreclosure action and the borrower will have to pay the entire amount owed on the promissory note.  On the other hand, in the context of a trustee's sale, the borrower can reinstate up until 5:00 p.m. the day before the date of the trustee's sale.  But once the trustee's sale has been held, that right of reinstatement is extinguished.